The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) has released its highly anticipated draft evidence report evaluating the effectiveness and value of three obesity medications: injectable semaglutide (Ozempic®, Wegovy®), oral semaglutide (Rybelsus®), and tirzepatide (Mounjaro®, Zepbound®). The report delivers crucial insights for commercial payers and healthcare purchasers on the rapidly evolving landscape of obesity pharmacotherapy. As employers and health plans grapple with mounting demand for effective weight‐loss treatments, ICER’s comprehensive evaluation of semaglutide and tirzepatide products underscores both clinical promise and implementation challenges.
The report affirms that injectable semaglutide, oral semaglutide, and tirzepatide hold top‐tier evidence ratings (A) when compared with lifestyle modification alone. However, ICER flags a significant evidence gap in direct comparisons between these two leading GLP-1 receptor agonists. Moreover, injectables outperform oral semaglutide by a wide margin, with the latter carrying a C- rating for weight‐loss efficacy. As two new oral semaglutide formulations are expected to launch in early 2026, payers will face a pivotal decision: whether to pre‐emptively steer coverage toward injectables until robust head-to-head and real-world data emerge, while preserving medical exceptions for high-need patients, or to allow broader patient choice.
Adherence and persistence present another critical hurdle. ICER’s analysis shows only 36% of patients remain adherent to injectable semaglutide at one year—and just 25% for oral semaglutide. For tirzepatide, measured at six months, persistence ranges from 54% to 74%. These figures mirror Merative studies and emphasize the urgency for payers to bolster wrap-around care programs, patient engagement initiatives, and adherence incentives as they finalize benefit designs for 2026.
Despite high list prices, ICER assigns both semaglutide and tirzepatide regimens strong value ratings, deeming them cost-effective at a threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). With typical net prices after rebates falling roughly 50% below list, payers can present these value assessments to executive leadership, alongside emerging outcome data, to support broadened coverage strategies that balance access, clinical impact, and financial sustainability.
ICER’s findings offer a roadmap for employers, health plans, and healthcare purchasers to balance clinical value with financial sustainability. Commercial payers can leverage the ICER findings to craft targeted coverage policies, optimize benefit designs, and drive better clinical and financial outcomes. Below are key ways these insights can shape payer decision-making in 2026 and beyond:
1. Prioritize high-risk populations
Focus coverage on patients with obesity-related comorbidities (e.g., cardiovascular disease, sleep apnea, prediabetes) where the drugs show the greatest benefit and cost-effectiveness.
2. Use evidence ratings to guide formulary decisions
Prioritize injectable semaglutide and tirzepatide on preferred tiers. By granting injectables preferred formulary placement, payers align coverage with the strongest evidence ratings (A) and steer utilization toward higher-efficacy treatments.
Implement cautious onboarding of new oral semaglutide. Institute a coverage hold or higher cost share (e.g., Non-Preferred tier) on oral semaglutide products at launch, with automatic review six to 12 months post-market when head-to-head data become available. Allow physician override for patients intolerant to injectables.
Use step-therapy pathways: require documented lifestyle modification efforts first, followed by injectable GLP-1 initiation, before permitting oral formulations. This balances cost management with evidence-based escalation of care.
3. Implement value-based contracting
Negotiate outcomes-based agreements with manufacturers and care management programs, tying reimbursement to sustained weight loss, reduction in comorbidities, or adherence metrics.
4. Address health equity
ICER highlights disparities in access and outcomes among Black and Hispanic populations. Payers should ensure culturally competent care and equitable coverage policies.
5. Monitor real-world adherence
With only 25–36% of patients remaining on therapy at one year, payers should invest in patient support programs to improve persistence and maximize ROI. Enhance wrap-around care programs, build or expand coaching, digital reminders, and care navigation specifically for GLP-1 therapies. Some payers are reporting that requiring care programs for GLP-1 access can jeopardize rebates for those medications – consider alternative options, such as tying participation to reduced member cost share or offering participation incentives through HSA contributions. Deploy real-time monitoring and outreach including integrating pharmacy data feeds into care management workflows so case managers can reach out when refill gaps appear.
6. Prepare for price negotiations
Medicare price negotiations and direct-to-consumer programs (e.g., LillyDirect, NovoCare) may shift market dynamics. Payers should stay agile in response to pricing changes and use all available benchmarks and data for price comparisons – this includes real-world data sets (e.g., MarketScan) and government mandated transparency reporting, such as RxDC reports.
7. Reporting and leadership communication
Present value-based dashboards and share ICER’s cost-effectiveness ratings alongside internal adherence and outcomes data to executive leadership, underscoring both clinical impact and budget neutrality. Forecast long-term savings by modeling downstream avoided costs (e.g., diabetes, cardiovascular events) tied to sustained weight loss, helping CFOs justify upfront pharmacy investments.
ICER’s report underscores the transformative potential of semaglutide and tirzepatide in obesity management. For payers, the challenge lies in translating clinical and economic value into sustainable coverage strategies—balancing innovation with affordability. Commercial payers should use this ICER draft report as both a roadmap and a risk-mitigation tool. By embedding these tactics into formulary management, contracting, benefit design, and clinical policy, payers can harness the promise of semaglutide and tirzepatide while mitigating risks around adherence, cost, and evidence gaps. This proactive framework positions payers to deliver high-value obesity care, helping employers and health plans navigate GLP-1s into 2026 with confidence—securing meaningful clinical outcomes for members while maintaining fiscal discipline.